Probability — Coin, Dice, Cards

Probability quantifies chance. P(heads) = 1/2. The experiment is the control — 100 flips will converge on theory. Indirect aim: statistics, preparation for science, decision-making literacy.

• Framework: Montessori
• Unit: Mathematics
• Learning area: Algebra
• Level: Ages 8-10

Objectives

• Compute probability as favorable/total outcomes
• Run experiments: coin flips, dice rolls
• Compare theoretical to experimental probability
• Apply to real situations

Materials

• Coins, dice, deck of cards
• Tally charts
• Calculator
• Probability chart

Instructions

1. P(heads) = 1/2 = 50%. 2. Flip 20 times; record. 3. Compare to theoretical. 4. Dice: P(6) = 1/6. Roll 60 times; count 6s. 5. Cards: P(ace) = 4/52 = 1/13. 6. Compound: P(heads AND heads) = 1/2 × 1/2 = 1/4. 7. P(rolling a 7 with two dice) = 6/36 = 1/6. 8. Apply to real: P(rain today based on forecast).

Educator tip

Large numbers converge to theory. Let children flip 100 times — they'll see it.

Assessment

Observe correct computation, experimental validation, and application.

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